Watch our Economic Letter video with Adam Shapiro, Vice President, Economic Research, to learn more about our measurements of ...

Inflation still lies somewhat above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal after slowing significantly since its spring 2022 peak.

U.S. labor productivity initially surged in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic, despite the massive economic upheaval. As the economy recovered, the level of productivity retreated to its slow ...

Inflation still lies somewhat above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal after slowing significantly since its spring 2022 peak. Analysis shows that two labor market indicators—the ratios of job vacancies to ...

Calendar-year inflation forecasts from Federal Open Market Committee meeting participants typically start near 2% and then ...

Economists Regis Barnichon and Adam Shapiro find that recent inflation dynamics can be at least partially explained by patterns of excess demand in the economy. In this Economic Letter video, Adam ...

The Phillips curve plays a central role in the macroeconomics literature. However, there is little consensus on the forcing variable that drives inflation in the model, i.e., on the appropriate ...

We examine the impact of systematic media reporting on household inflation expectations, focusing on how selective news coverage influences household responses to inflation news. In a model where ...

Our new data page, CPI Inflation Contributions from Goods and Services, details the evolution of inflation using the consumer ...

U.S. net international migration (NIM) grew at historically high rates over the past several years. An update of earlier San Francisco Fed analysis (Duzhak 2024), using new and revised data on the ...